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J.M. HURST CYCLE TRADING WITHOUT THE ROCKET MATH
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JM HURST - CYCLE TRADING
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Around 1970 a California rocket scientist and a small group of wealthy investors rented time on a mainframe computer to do original stock market research
and develop a swing trading method. 30,000 hours later the rocket scientist of the group, physicist and aerospace engineer, J.M. Hurst, published the results (or at least so much as they wanted to
disclose) of his research in a technical analysis classic, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing.
JM Hurst's book was ostensibly about moving averages but to the average stock
trader it looked like a rocket math treatise on numerical analysis.
Ironically, the best book ever written about
stock market cycles and swing trading became available during the deepest and most extended Bear Market since the Great Depression.
From 1972 on brokers couldn't give blue chip stock away in a Wall Street lunchroom. There was no market for
a book by a stock market timer, and the book became a hidden treasure. |
JM Hurst was a very private man. He personally taught a stock market cycle course for a year or so but, other than that, he never published a
stock market newsletter, he never gave interviews, and he never promoted his discovery. By the time stock market investing became sexy again, in the early 80s, JM Hurst was long forgotten old news.
Peter Eliades and Mark Hulbert picked up the banner of Hurst cycle
analysis and stock market cycles but Hurst's
technical analysis techniques were too complicated and too math intensive for the average stock market trader, and too bourgeois for the new class of quants and trading system junkies that treated anything to do with moving averages with
the same disdain as green eyeshades. Too bad for them. Hurst proved that
with the right understanding and technique that certain moving averages
could be used to forecast price and time with stunning accuracy.
The full monty Hurst Method is still pretty intensive and folks who spend $3,000 on a trading platform aren't going to be very keen about using it to plot moving averages. You shouldn't be concerned about any of that. Deep within his
original market research JM Hurst left us with a
stock market timing and trading technique that is so good and so easy to implement that it's like ethical cheating.
The Hurst trading principle is easy to understand and to use, and it can be
implemented on almost any trading platform to uncover turning points in
all time frames.
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