March 19, 2010

By Editorial Staff

You got your brackets filled out before the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament’s opening game on Thursday afternoon. Good — now sit back and enjoy the games. But if you’re looking for a good read during the numerous and lengthy time outs, we’ve got just the thing. It’s the most important investment report you will read in 2010. Forget the theoretical and hypothetical sorts of analysis that occupy so much space online. Bob Prechter gives 22 real-life examples of how deflation is beginning to spread in the U.S. economy — along with 13 charts that make the examples even clearer.

You want to know whether to prepare for inflation or deflation? This report will answer your questions. Read this excerpt to see what we mean. Oh, and try to forget that a No. 2 seed (Villanova) almost got upset in the first round and that Georgetown, a No. 3 seed, got beat by Ohio University, a 14 seed.

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States Are Broke and Approaching Insolvency
While state “regulators” clamp down on profligate banks, the same states’ legislatures continue to blow money. For years, state governments have been spending every dime they could squeeze out of taxpayers plus all they could borrow. (The lone exception is Nebraska, which prohibits state indebtedness over $100k. Whatever Nebraska’s official position on any other issue, by this action alone it is the most enlightened state government in the union.)

But now even states’ borrowing ability has run into a brick wall, because the basis of their ability to pay interest—namely, tax receipts—is evaporating. The goose—the poor, overdriven taxpayer—is dying, and the production of golden eggs, which allowed state governments to binge for the past 40 years, is falling. The only reason that states did not either default on their loans or drastically cut their spending over the past year is that the federal government sucked a trillion dollars out of the loan market and handed it to countless undeserving entities, including state governments.

“It’s hard to imagine what happens when stimulus money runs out,” says a budget expert. (USA, 10/29/09) But it is not at all hard to imagine what will happen. Conquer the Crash imagined state insolvency seven years ago. The breezy transfer of money from innocent savers to state spenders is going to end, and when it does, states will cut spending and “services” drastically. They will also default on their debts, which will be deflationary.

Elliott Wave International’s latest free report puts 2010 into perspective like no other. The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read in 2010 is a must-read for all independent-minded investors. The 13-page report is available for free download now. Learn more here.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Enjoy your 8 free chapters from Prechter’s Conquer the Crash — the book that foresaw what others have missed.
March 16, 2010

By Editorial Staff

There is no question that Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash foresaw and explained nearly every chapter of today’s financial crisis, years before it happened. Enjoy your 8 free chapters from the book with this free Club EWI report; here’s a quick excerpt from chapter 23, "What To Do With Your Pension Plan." Note especially the last two paragraphs.

Make sure you fully understand all aspects of your government’s individual retirement plans. In the U.S., this includes such structures as IRAs, 401Ks and Keoghs. If you anticipate severe system-wide financial and political stresses, you may decide to liquidate any such plans and pay whatever penalty is required. Why?

Because there are strings attached to the perk of having your money sheltered from taxes. You may do only what the government allows you to do with the money. It restricts certain investments and can change the list at any time. It charges a penalty for early withdrawal and can change the amount of the penalty at any time.

What is the worst that could happen? In Argentina, the government continued to spend more than it took in until it went broke trying to pay the interest on its debt. In December 2001, it seized $2.3 billion dollars worth of deposits in private pension funds to pay its bills.

In the 1930s, the world heard a lot of populist rhetoric about why “rich” people should be plundered for the public good. It is easy to imagine such talk in the next crisis, directed at requiring wealthy people to forfeit their retirement savings for the good of the nation.

With the retirement setup in the U.S., the government need not be as direct as Argentina’s. It need merely assert, after a stock market fall decimates many people’s savings, that stocks are too risky to hold for retirement purposes. Under the guise of protecting you, it could ban stocks and perhaps other investments in tax-exempt pension plans and restrict assets to one category: “safe” long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.

Then it could raise the penalty of early withdrawal to 100 percent. Bingo. The government will have seized the entire $2 trillion — or what’s left of it given a crash — that today is held in government-sponsored, tax-deferred 401K private pension plans. I’m not saying it will happen, but it could, and wouldn’t you rather have your money safely under your own discretion?

Read the rest of Conquer the Crash Chapter 23, "What To Do With Your Pension Plan," online now, free!  Right now, you can download the 8-chapter Conquer the Crash Collection, free. It includes:

Chapter 10: Money, Credit And The Federal Reserve Banking System
Chapter 13: Can The Fed Stop Deflation?
Chapter 23: What To do With Your Pension Plan
Chapter 28: How To Identify A Safe Haven
Chapter 29: Calling In Loans & Paying Off Debt
Chapter 30: What You Should Do If You Run A Business
Chapter 32: Should You Rely On The Government To Protect You?
Chapter 33: Short List of Imperative ‘Do’s’ & ‘Don’ts"

Visit Elliott Wave International to learn more about the free Conquer the Crash Collection.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

The crude oil market came under pressure on Monday and I’m disappointed that I did not have this video out to you earlier.

Nonetheless, I think you will find this video  useful as it outlines our position in this market. The video is short and to the point, nonetheless I think you’ll have a lot of good takeaway information.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you with regards to your thoughts on this video.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

March 15, 2010

By Editorial Staff

The following article is adapted from a special report on "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" published by Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of the technical analysis and research firm Elliott Wave International. Although originally published in 1985, "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" is so timeless and relevant that USA Today covered its insights in a recent Nov. 2009 article. For the rest of this revealing 50-page report, download it for free here.

This year’s Academy Awards gave us movies about war (The Hurt Locker), football (The Blind Side), country music (Crazy Heart) and going native (Avatar), but nowhere did we see a horror movie nominated. In fact, it looks like Sweeney Todd, The Demon Barber of Fleet Street was the most recent to be nominated in 2008, for art direction (which it won), costume design and best actor, although the last one to win major awards for Best Picture, Director, Actor and Actress was The Silence of the Lambs in 1991.

Whether horror films win Academy Awards or not, they tell an interesting story about mass psychology. Research here at Elliott Wave International shows that horror films proliferate during bear markets, whereas upbeat, sweet-natured Disney movies show up during bull markets. Since the Dow has been in a bear-market rally for a year, now is not the time for horror films to dominate the movie theaters. But their time will come again.

In the meantime, to catch up on why all kinds of pop culture — including fashion, art, movies and music — can help to explain the markets, take a few minutes to read a piece called Popular Culture and the Stock Market, which Bob Prechter wrote in 1985. Here’s an excerpt about horror movies as a sample.

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From Popular Culture and the Stock Market by Bob Prechter

While musicals, adventures, and comedies weave into the pattern, one particularly clear example of correlation with the stock market is provided by horror movies. Horror movies descended upon the American scene in 1930-1933, the years the Dow Jones Industrials collapsed. Five classic horror films were all produced in less than three short years. Frankenstein and Dracula premiered in 1931, in the middle of the great bear market. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde played in 1932, the bear market bottom year and the only year that a horror film actor was ever granted an Oscar. The Mummy and King Kong hit the screen in 1933, on the double bottom. These are the classic horror films of all time, along with the new breed in the 1970s, and they all sold big. The message appeared to be that people had an inhuman, horrible side to them. Just to prove the vision correct, Hitler was placed in power in 1933 (an expression of the darkest public mood in decades) and fulfilled it. For thirteen years, lasting only slightly past the stock market bottom of 1942, films continued to feature Frankenstein monsters, vampires, werewolves and undead mummies. Ironically, Hollywood tried to introduce a new monster in 1935 during a bull market, but Werewolf of London was a flop. When film makers tried again in 1941, in the depths of a bear market, The Wolf Man was a smash hit.
Shortly after the bull market in stocks resumed in 1942, films abandoned dark, foreboding horror in the most sure-fire way: by laughing at it. When Abbott and Costello met Frankenstein, horror had no power. That decade treated moviegoers to patriotic war films and love themes. The 1950s gave us sci-fi adventures in a celebration of man’s abilities; all the while, the bull market in stocks raged on. The early 1960s introduced exciting James Bond adventures and happy musicals. The milder horror styles of the bull market years and the limited extent of their popularity stand in stark contrast to those of the bear market years.
Then a change hit. Just about the time the stock market was peaking, film makers became introspective, doubting and cynical. How far the change in cinematic mood had carried didn’t become fully clear until 1969-1970, when Night of the Living Dead and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre debuted. Just look at the chart of the Dow [not shown], and you’ll see the crash in mood that inspired those movies. The trend was set for the 1970s, as slice-and-dice horror hit the screen. There also appeared a rash of re-makes of the old Dracula and Frankenstein stories, but as a dominant theme, Frankenstein couldn’t cut it; we weren’t afraid of him any more.

Hollywood had to horrify us to satisfy us, and it did. The bloody slasher-on-the-loose movies were shocking versions of the ’30s’ monster shows, while the equally gory zombie films had a modern twist. In the 1930s, Dracula was a fitting allegory for the perceived fear of the day, that the aristocrat was sucking the blood of the common people. In the 1970s, horror was perpetrated by a group eating people alive, not an individual monster. An army of dead-but-moving flesh-eating zombies devouring every living person in sight was a fitting allegory for the new horror of the day, voracious government and the welfare state, and the pressures that most people felt as a result. The nature of late ’70s’ warfare ultimately reflected the mass-devouring visions, with the destruction of internal populations in Cambodia and China.

Learn what’s really behind trends in the stock market, music, fashion, movies and more… Read Robert Prechter’s Full 50-page Report, "Popular Culture and the Stock Market," FREE

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Last week we gave you a Trade Triangle alert to exit the gold market on the long side. Since that alert was issued gold has dropped significantly.

In today’s short video I bring you up to date with our thoughts on what we think is going to happen next to gold.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you in regards to your thoughts on this video.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

It’s been a while since we did a video on the euro/dollar relationship. This relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today’s short video I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you with regards to your thoughts on this video.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.

While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today’s short video I show you some of the elements that I think should be cause for concern.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you with regards to your thoughts on this video.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Our FREE report reveals why the FDIC guarantee is just an "illusion"
March 12, 2010

By Nico Issac

• So far in 2010, the number of US bank failures has reached 25, a rate of two per week. This compares to 25 total bank failures for ALL of 2008, and three for 2007.
• The benchmark KBW Bank Index still stands 60% below its 2007 peak, while one-third of all US banks reported a net loss for 2009.
• The FDIC’s list of "problem" institutions rose from 552 to 702 from Q3 to Q4 of 2009.
• And each new day could bring a new, personally addressed letter to announce the name change of your financial institution.

Yet — no matter how grave the data gets, few people imagine the corporate banking crisis trickling down to average Joe or Jane and their lollipop-dispensing drive-through bank tellers.

It’s not naive to think that, either. The agreement is understood: Money goes into the bank as liquid capital, and comes out as a loan certificate. Practically speaking, your account balance is only as secure as the loans the bank makes with its depositors’ money. The trust in that exchange reflects two main beliefs:

1) Banks know best how to allocate their clients’ money so as to ensure the greatest risk-to-reward ratio.
2) Banks are guaranteed by the Federal government, via the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Well, as the latest report from our complimentary Club EWI service reveals — neither one is as it seems. This 15-page exclusive compiles the most groundbreaking insights from various collected works of EWI president Bob Prechter himself, including: the best-selling book Conquer the Crash and previous Elliott Wave Theorist publications. Off the top are these riveting thought-burners:

How are banks using your money? Not wisely. "At latest count, US banks report $6.942 Trillion in deposits, and $6.945 Trillion in loans. In other words, the average bank in the US has lent out 100% of its deposits."

Where is your money going? For the most part, it’s tied up in mortgage-backed securities. Last count: One in every 418 U.S. homes have filed for foreclosure, while the rate of default on commercial mortgages doubled in Q4 of 2009. See the problem?

What about the trusted sticker in the front window of US banks assuring that the FDIC guarantees to refund depositor’s losses of up to $100,000? Well, as the Club EWI report reveals, this sticker is merely a "symbol of confidence," NOT a certainty of it. The piece goes on to add:

"Did you know that most of the FDIC’s money comes from other banks? When the FDIC rescues weak banks by charging healthier ones higher ‘premiums,’ overall bank deposits are depleted, causing the net loan-to-deposit ratio to rise. Ultimately the federal government backs the FDIC, which sounds like a sure thing. But if tax receipts fall, the government will be hard pressed to save a large number of banks with its own diminishing supply of capital. Huge illusions can melt away in a flash if the system fails."

Where then is a bank I can trust? Here, the Club EWI report provides a list of the Top 100 highest-rated banks in America by state based on third-quarter 2009 data. The publication also reveals the global jurisdictions that "provide wealth preservation service as opposed to interest income and daily transaction conveniences."

Inside the revealing free report, you’ll discover:

• The 100 Safest U.S. Banks (2 for each state)
• Where your money goes after you make a deposit
• How your fractional-reserve bank works
• What risks you might be taking by relying on the FDIC’s guarantee

Please protect your money. Download the free 10-page "Safe Banks" report now.

Learn more about the "Safe Banks" report, and download it for free here.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.

Paper trading is only useful for the testing of your methodology.
March 11, 2010

By Editorial Staff

This is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International’s free Club EWI resource, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful" — a classic Special Report by EWI’s president Robert Prechter.

… 3. Experience. Some people advocate "paper trading" as a learning tool. Paper trading is useful for the testing of methodology, but it is of no value in learning about trading. In fact, it can be detrimental, by imbuing the novice with a false sense of security in "knowing" that he has successfully paper traded the past six months, thus believing that the next six months with real money will be no different. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth. Why?

Because the markets are not merely an intellectual exercise. They are an emotional (and in extreme cases, even physical) one as well. If you buy a computer baseball game and become a hitting expert with the joystick while sitting quietly alone on the floor of your living room, you may conclude that you are one talented baseball player. Now let the Mean Green Giant reach in, pick you up, and place you in the batter’s box at the bottom of the ninth inning in the final game of the World Series with your team behind by one run, the third base coach flashing signals one after another, a fastball heading toward your face at 90 m.p.h., and sixty beer soaked fans in the front row screaming, "Yer a bum! Yer a bum!" Guess what? You feel different!

To put it mildly, you will find it impossible to approach your task with the same cool detachment you displayed in your living room. This new situation is real, it matters, it is physical, it is dangerous, other people are watching, and you are being bombarded with stimuli. This is what your life is like when you are actually speculating. You know it is real, you know it matters, you must physically place orders, you perform under the scrutiny of your broker or clients, your spouse and business acquaintances, and you must operate while thousands of conflicting messages are thrown at you from the financial media, the brokerage industry, analysts, and the market itself.

In short, you must conquer a host of problems, most of them related to battling powerful human emotions, in order to trade real money successfully. The School of Hard Knocks is the only school that will teach it to you, and the tuition is expensive.

There is only one shortcut to obtaining experience, and that is to find a mentor. Locate someone who has proved himself over the years to be a successful trader or investor, and go visit him. You will undoubtedly find that he is very friendly since his runaway ego of yesteryear, which undoubtedly got him involved in the markets in the first place, has long since been humbled. Observe not only what he does, but far more important, what he does not allow himself to do. This person does exist, but it is hard to find him. He will usually welcome the opportunity to tell you what he knows.

Read the rest of this important report, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful", now, free! Here’s what you’ll learn:

4 more items on Prechter’s list of requirements for successful trading
Why "You can’t go broke taking a profit" is not a universal rule
Why other trading adages are often completely contradictory to each other
More

Learn more, and download this free report here

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. EWI’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

Gold’s safe-haven status is based on hype, not history
March 9, 2010

By Nico Isaac

As I sat down to watch the Oscar pre-show on Sunday night, March 7, one word was repeatedly used to describe the celebrity starlets and their designer duds: GOLD. Gold bustiers and gold lame skirts, shiny gun-metal dresses and glittery sequined gowns all basking in the golden shadow of the final golden statue.

Everywhere you look, from the Red Carpet to Wall Street, gold is definitely in "fashion." As for why, one word comes to mind: safe-haven. See, according to the mainstream financial experts, the more unstable the global economy, the greater the appeal for the precious metal.

And, with a staggering 17% unemployment rate in the United States, alongside slumping real estate sales, Eurozone weakness, the Greece debt debacle, and so on — the only thing going up is gold’s supposed disaster premium. Here, take these recent news items for example:

• "Bullion Sales Hit Record In Stampede To Safety." (Financial Times)
• "Gold Ticks Higher On Safe Haven Buying. The risk trade is resuming." (AP)
• "Gold Rose to 6 ½ Week Highs as the metal benefits from fears over financial instability in general. The market is looking for some security with gold." (Reuters)
• "Gold Rush: This is a new round of safe haven buying." (Bloomberg)

There’s just one problem: The correlation between a falling economy AND rising gold prices is based solely on hype, NOT history.

Download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. Is gold a simple buy-and-hold at today’s prices? The independent insights in this valuable ebook deliver Prechter’s complete analysis and help you decide how to – and how not to – incorporate gold and silver successfully into your own investment strategy. Learn more, and download your Gold and Silver eBook here.

Case in point: In the March 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist (republished in his 40-page Gold and Silver eBook), Elliott Wave International President Bob Prechter presents an indisputable case AGAINST the safe-haven status of gold.

The first piece of evidence: The following table showing gold’s performance during the 11 officially recognized recessions beginning in 1945.

Prechter also plotted the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the same period and made this startling discovery: The average total return for the Dow during recessions since 1945 is 6.89%. Taking into account modern transaction costs, the Dow actually beats gold with a 6.87% return.

The most powerful myth-debunking punch of all, though, came via the second chart of gold’s performance — this time during periods of financial growth.

In Prechter’s own words:

"All huge gains in gold have come while the economy was expanding… The idea that gold reliably rises during recessions and depressions is wrong. In fact, like most such passionately accepted lore, it’s backwards."

Now, this doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t own gold in a financial crisis. On the contrary: In chapter 22 of his Wall Street Journal business bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Prechter lists 5 reasons why "you should buy gold and silver anyway." Gold is "real money," after all! It’s just that, despite widespread beliefs to the contrary, you shouldn’t expect "huge gains in gold" when the economy contracts.

Download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. Is gold a simple buy-and-hold at today’s prices? The independent insights in this valuable ebook deliver Prechter’s complete analysis and help you decide how to – and how not to – incorporate gold and silver successfully into your own investment strategy. Learn more, and download your Gold and Silver eBook here.

Nico Isaac writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis firm.