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Prices overshot the lower channel line to the next rotation level but so far so good for the Roadmap. The trend is self-defined as Down. The trading strategy is to wait for a bounce contained by the upper channel line before going short again.

Overall, the CDX index of investment-grade debt currently trades at 107 basis points, which means it costs $107,000 to insure $10 million of debt for five years. But here’s where it gets tricky — there are various tranches of debt, some more important than others, such as “super senior” debt, which is the highest of the high, and “mezzanine,” which is the lowest of the low, the holders of which only get paid back before equity holders. That debt has experienced a huge increase in insurance costs — it now costs $569,000 for five years of insurance for $10 million, compared with $401,000 at this time a week ago, according to CDR. By contrast, the top-tier debt will cost $33,000 to insure, still more expensive than the paltry $6,000 asked a week ago, but nowhere near as severe a change. It means more investors expect default. “It seems as though every week another large government sponsored entity steps in to help the market from free falling (or correcting) and yet never quite produces lasting results,” notes Byron Douglass, analyst at CDR.

Wall Street Journal

A well done Wall Street Journal article about US currency fundamentals. This is a tiny excerpt:

“The Fed took a gamble on inflation to ward off what was perceived as a deflationary threat in 2001-02. The inflationary consequences of that gamble are now here, with the petrodollar monetary merry-go-round fueled by the weaker dollar. Those consequences will be much easier to deal with now, rather than later. Unlike Japan, where the capital-markets risk was concentrated in a handful of thinly capitalized large banks, the very growth of the credit-derivatives market that is the source of the current crisis in the U.S. has also resulted in a wide dispersion of risk in the financial system, and any recession will likely be mild and short.” Read more…

Everyone wants to know, “Is the worst over for stocks?” If you’re familiar with Bob Prechter and his work, you won’t be surprised that his short answer is “NO.” But … it’s his long answer that is much more compelling, including insights into what you should be doing NOW to prepare for what’s still to come.

You just watched Bob’s short answer. For his long answer, you must join his free community, Club EWI. CLICK HERE TO JOIN NOW

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The Short Term Update (Published Mon., Wed., Fri.)
Elliott wave charts and commentary for stocks, bonds, metals and the U.S. dollar. Also includes occasional special opportunities for stocks that look poised for major moves. All free during FreeAccess. $40/month value

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (Published Monthly)
Monthly wave analysis of stocks, bonds, metals, the U.S. dollar and economic and social trends. Get the January issue free during FreeAccess. $20/month value

The Elliott Wave Theorist (Published Monthly)
Bob Prechter’s insights may cover everything from the reversal of a 14-month trend, to an Elliott wave perspective on physics. The latest issue will be delivered to you, free. $20/month value.

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Hope you find it useful.

Have you ever looked back on an investment and asked yourself, “What in the world was I thinking?!” The obvious reply is “Yes!”, and that is because…

…Every investor makes mistakes. It always has and always will be true. But even so, some mistakes hurt you more than others. When it comes to successful investing, what matters is to keep your mistakes small and make few of them.

That is simple, but it’s not easy. The most critical step you can take is to identify your mistakes and, more important, understand why you make those mistakes.

You can learn how to do just that by participating in a unique webinar with EWI’s Senior Tutorial Instructor, Wayne Gorman. He knows a thing or two about avoiding investment mistakes; he’s been doing it (trying to, anyway) for 30+ years!

Join Wayne LIVE on the web, Wednesday, Jan. 23 at 4:30PM Eastern, for his rapid-fire explanation of why these five factors lead to costly investment mistakes, and how you can avoid falling victim:

* The News
* Macroeconomics
* Microeconomics
* The Fed
* The “Easy Way”

Click the banner or click HERE for one free week of forecasts at this most crtical time in the markets.

Financial Times
By Jo Johnson in New Delhi
Published: January 16 2008 18:33 | Last updated: January 16 2008 18:33

Could Indian housewives be calling the top of the gold market? Many are selling unwanted jewelery into a booming recycling market and deferring all but essential purchases of the precious metal, commodity traders, economists and jewelers said on Wednesday.

India is the world’s largest consumer of the precious metal and the apparent sell signal from its value-savvy householders may prove unsettling for global investors hoping that gold will continue to be a safe haven in volatile markets.

The Master Time Calculator is a nifty tool based on the importance Gann placed on the Vernal Equinox as the starting point of the trading year.