3 Shocking Answers!

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Bob Prechter, President of Elliott Wave International (EWI), is no stranger to challenging the status quo. His New York Times bestseller, Conquer the Crash, was published in 2002 before anyone was even talking about the current financial crisis.

In his recent 10-page market letter, Prechter shifts his focus to the government’s role in the latest financial turmoil.

Elliott Wave International is offering the full 10-page report free if you’d like to read all 28 answers. Visit EWI to download the full report, free.

Here are 3 questions excerpted from the free report:

1. Didn’t Congress create the Federal Housing Authority, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and the Federal Home Loan Banks for the purpose of helping the public buy homes?

You’re kidding, right? What happened is that clever businessmen schemed with members of Congress to create privileged lending institutions so they could get rich off the public’s labor. In return, members of Congress got big campaign contributions from the privileged corporations and, as a bonus, even more votes. The public’s welfare had nothing to do with it.

Who celebrated when Congress passed the latest housing bill? Answer: “The California Mortgage Bankers Association applauded Congress for permanently increasing the size of loans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can buy….” (USA, 7/28) The legislation exists to “protect the nation’s two largest mortgage companies….” (NYT, 7/24) Who took out full-page ads to encourage Congress to “enact housing stimulus legislation now”? Answer: the National Association of Home Builders. Who celebrated when the administration “unveiled a new set of best [sic] practices designed to encourage banks to issue a debt instrument known as a covered bond”? Answer: “[Treasury Secretary] Paulson was joined at the news conference by officials from the Federal Reserve [and] the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation…. Officials from banking giants Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. issued a joint statement saying, ‘We look forward to being leading issuers’” (AP, 7/29) of covered bonds. And voters still believe that Congress is there to help the needy.

2. Who cares if a bank goes under? Won’t the FDIC protect depositors?

The FDIC is not funded well enough to bail out even a handful of the biggest banks in America. It has enough money to pay depositors of about three big banks. After that, it’s broke. But here is the real irony: The FDIC, as history will ultimately demonstrate, causes banks to fail. The FDIC creates destruction three ways. First, its very existence encourages banks to take lending risks that they would never otherwise contemplate, while it simultaneously removes depositors’ incentives to keep their bankers prudent. This double influence produces an unsound banking system. We have reached that point today. Second, the FDIC imposes costly rules on banks. In July, it “implemented a new rule…requiring the 159 [largest] banks to keep records that will give quick access to customer information.” As the American Bankers Association puts it, the new rule “will impose a lot of burden on a lot of banks for no reason.” (AJC, 7/19) Third, the FDIC gets its money in the form of “premiums” from—guess whom?—healthy banks! So as weak banks go under, the FDIC can wring more money from still-solvent banks. If it begins calling in money during a systemic credit implosion, marginal banks will go under, requiring more money for the FDIC, which will have to take more money from banks, breaking more marginal banks, etc. The FDIC could continue this behavior until all banks are bust, but it will more likely give up and renege. Remember, every government program ultimately brings about the opposite of the stated goal, and the FDIC is no exception.

3. Who are the “homeowners”?

Everywhere you turn, news articles are discussing how Congress, the President and the Fed are taking action to “help homeowners.” People’s understanding of this statement is 100 percent wrong. The homeowners in question are not the residents of the houses. The homeowners are banks. Unlike some states, Georgia made its law very specific on this point. Our local paper recently explained that, by recognizing the reality of ownership, “Georgia employs primarily a nonjudicial foreclosure” and therefore “has one of the fastest procedures in the country.” Specifically, “The property owner gives the mortgage holder a ‘security deed’ or a ‘deed to secure debt’. Technically, until the debt is paid, in full, the mortgage holder owns the property and allows the borrower to possess it.” (GT, 8/6) In states where the mortgage holder is deemed the property owner, the title is merely a legal technicality. The day he stops making mortgage payments, he no longer owns the property; the bank does. After foreclosure, many of those whom politicians and the media call homeowners will simply go from paying interest to a bank to paying rent to a landlord. For those with little or no equity, it’s not that big a deal. The real devastation is happening in banks’ portfolios, and banks, not home-dwellers, are the ones whom the government is trying to rescue, at others’ expense.

One might be tempted to charge therefore that Congress makes its laws for the purpose of helping banks. This idea, too, is incorrect. Helping banks is merely a side effect. The reason that Congress creates privileges for bankers is to benefit politicians. They make laws in response to campaign contributions from lending institutions, real-estate organizations and builders’ associations. They also garner votes from mortgage holders and, miraculously, from voters who think that their “representatives” are being “compassionate.”

The previous 3 questions and answers from Bob Prechter were excerpted from his recent 10-page market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist.

Elliott Wave International is offering the full 10-page report free if you’d like to read all 28 answers. Visit EWI to download the full report, free.

Scripps News
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/35562

A countdown clock on a Web site operated by Nehemiah Corp. of America is ticking off the days, hours, minutes and seconds until a new government ban will terminate virtually all seller-funded down payment assistance programs in the United States. But the clock may be stopped, now that a bill that would reverse the ban has been introduced in Congress.

The clock will tick off its last second Oct. 1, the last day when homebuyers will be able to use seller-funded down payment assistance with any mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration, or FHA, a division of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, known as HUD.

More than 1 million buyers and sellers have utilized these programs, according to industry figures. The two largest organizations, Nehemiah in Sacramento, Calif., and AmeriDream in Gaithersburg, Md., have processed more than 300,000 and 250,000 transactions, respectively, according to company statements.

Indeed, seller-funded down payments have become so closely associated with FHA-backed mortgages that more than 33 percent of loans backed by the agency last year included such assistance, according to FHA data. The agency is still working out the details of how the ban will be implemented, says HUD spokesman Lemar Wooley.
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If it works then Congress will break it. Has anybody in Congress given any thought to what this idiotic ban would do to home resale prices?

The information in your credit reports at the three major credit reporting bureaus is too important to just ignore and hope for the best. You can contact the three major credit bureaus at the website annualcreditreport.com for a free copy from each of the three major credit bureaus one time per year. If you request only one of the three reports every four months then you can monitor your credit history for free.

You can dispute outdated or incorrect information in your credit report. That much should be common knowledge to every adult consumer by now. But this article will introduce you to some little-known techniques that you can use to fix some of your credit related problems and boost your credit score.

Tip #1: The address you use when applying for credit makes a difference. If you don’t use your regular street address, but instead provide a mail box number, UPS store, or similar outfit on your credit application, it is less likely you’ll be approved. That address comes up in the credit bureau systems as not being a real address.

Tip #2: It’s not enough to just remove negative information from your credit report; you must add positive accounts in order to improve your credit rating. One fast way to add a positive account is by using your savings account as collateral for a loan from your bank. Make it a small loan and when the loan gets funded put the cash in your checking account and set up an automatic bill pay so there is no chance of being late with a payment.

Tip #3: Being self-employed hurts your credit. If you are a sole proprietor, it is to your advantage to become incorporated. Lenders like stability, and employment with a company (even if it’s your own), looks better to them than someone who is self-employed. There are tax implications in doing this so better check with a good tax guy first.

Tip #4: Even if you have a good credit rating, your credit rating can still take a hit if your debt load gets too high, maybe as little as 50% of available credit. If at all possible you want to get your ratio of debt to reported available credit down to 30% or less. If you don’t have the cash to pay it down then try to raise the credit limits (available credit) on your existing accounts. The credit bureaus average across all accounts so success with even one account will help more than doing nothing at all.

Tip #5: It is better to carry a balance on credit card and installment accounts, even though you’ll be paying interest on them every month than it is to pay off the accounts and bring the balance to zero. Keep a 10% to 30% debt to credit ratio on all your accounts if possible. That demonstrates to potential new lenders that you are a solid, financial risk who can handle credit.

Tip #6: Avoid free credit report services that are popping up on the net and advertise on TV. Most free services will give you the first 30 days free, and then nail you with a hefty monitoring fee. Those TV ads have to paid for. You can get a free copy of your credit report once a year from an organization set up by the credit bureaus themselves.

Tip #7: Just one payment that goes more than 30 days overdue can ruin all your hard work. If you’ve worked hard to clean up your credit report, don’t blow it by missing another payment date. Just one “late-pay” may have a huge impact on your credit rating. As much as 100 points on your credit score for one late payment on even a small amount.

In tight credit times like these, good credit is more important than ever. The median credit score is 723 and that should be your absolute minimum goal. You can take charge of your financial affairs, and reap the rewards of lower interest rates, and even lower insurance premiums. And if you arm yourself with the right information, you can do it all yourself!

The sky is falling, the sky is falling! Or so you would think if you listened to all the news coverage about the mortgage market. The news is filled with reports of declining home values, resetting adjustable-rate mortgages and people feeling the pinch of tightened credit.

However, despite the doom and gloom, much of the media haven’t reported on the proverbial silver linings in the storm clouds. One of the bright spots is the resurgence in popularity of a loan program that has been around since the 1930s — the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan.

Historically used almost exclusively by consumers to purchase their first home because of its low down payment requirements and competitive rates, FHA loans are making a comeback and quickly gaining prominence among those looking to refinance as well.

“A large number of people are really benefiting from the FHA loan program, and what is most interesting is many of them have just recently been turned down for more traditional conventional loans,” says Bob Walters, chief economist for Quicken Loans, one of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders. “This program isn’t the answer for everyone, but we have found that it can be a very viable option for many people.”

According to Walters, FHA loans are being used by consumers for cash-out refinancings, or to consolidate debt up to 95 percent of the home’s value — moves that are extremely difficult and often not financially practical to make with current conventional lending guidelines.

“Through the first half of 2007, homeowners had no problem making their mortgages work for them. However, since that time, tighter lending guidelines have resulted in many loan programs being taken off the table. Fortunately, FHA loans can fill some of the void. When used responsibly, FHA loans can provide much-needed relief. Every day, we help clients purchase homes, pay off medical expenses, eliminate high-interest credit card debt and generally improve their financial position through the FHA program,” Walters adds.

Consumers are also finding that in some instances, FHA loans can close very quickly, in less than 14 business days in some cases.

“The bottom line is that FHA loans are an option for many folks, but not for everyone. It is very important that every homeowner consult with a reputable lender who will listen to their needs and goals, and then suggest the best mortgage for them. In some cases it could be an FHA loan, and in others it may be a conventional fixed or adjustable rate mortgage. What is important is that the loan actually works for the consumer and puts them in the best possible financial position,” Walters concludes.

By Susan C. Walker, Elliott Wave International
August 28, 2007
Remember that catchy love song that Frank Sinatra made popular in the 1960s, “The Best Is Yet To Come”?

“The best is yet to come and, babe, won’t that be fine?
You think you’ve seen the sun, but you ain’t seen it shine.”

At the risk of mixing musical metaphors and styles, it looks more like the sun has deserted us right now in the financial markets, and we’re about to see “The Dark Side of the Moon,” the title of Pink Floyd’s 1973 smash album. With the subprime mortgage problems reaching farther and farther out to touch hedge funds, U.S. and European banks, mortgage companies and money-market funds, what we’re going to experience sounds more like “The Worst is Yet To Come.”

That’s because the financial markets must contend not only with the credit crunch brought on by rising foreclosures now; they must also deal with the repercussions from more foreclosures over the next 18 months as more adjustable-rate mortgages (whether subprime or not) reset from low teaser rates to higher interest-rate levels.

How bad can it get? Investment adviser John Mauldin recently published a month-by-month account of the dollar amount of mortgages that will be reset through 2008, and the largest reset amounts pop up in the first six months of next year. In fact, as he points out, the $197 billion of mortgage resets so far this year is “less than we will see in two months (February and March) of next year. The first six months of next year will see more than the total for 2007, or $521 billion.”

So, we haven’t even begun to feel the pain yet. It’s bad enough for the folks who will find that they can’t keep up with the higher mortgage payments and will have to move out of their homes. But the financial markets won’t be catching a break either. The antiseptic phrase used to describe the situation is “repricing risk.” That means that investors have woken up to the fact that the AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities and derivatives they invested in look more like junk bonds now. This eye-opener causes them to want higher yields from what they now see as riskier vehicles.

That new investor caution plays out this way: investment banks, hedge funds and any other entity that bought securities backed by subprime loans now find it hard to sell the darn things. It’s almost the same as homeowners trying to find buyers for their homes – nearly impossible in a market where home prices are falling. In the financial markets, it’s nearly impossible because no one even wants to attach a price to a collateralized debt obligation today for fear that it will be priced much lower tomorrow.

The Fed can try to calm such fears all it wants by lowering the discount rate and giving banks more time to pay back loans (from overnight to 30 days), but the real problem can’t be fixed with more access to credit. The fact is nobody wants any more of that. What they really want is cash to pay off their debts, be it a mortgage or an unwinding of a securities bet.

Wall Street’s denizens are in the dark about how much their schemes depend on the ocean of liquidity created by the bull market, say Elliott Wave International’s analysts, Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall. They are particularly struck by the image of the Grim Reaper that Business Week magazine put on its cover recently with the headline, “Death Bonds:”

“The grim reaper is the perfect visage to welcome the arriving wave of liquidation; it will wreak havoc with their work. The field’s dark fate is clear in one fund manager’s description of what caused ‘forced sales’ at another fund: ‘The models work when they look at history, but not when history is all new.’ What’s ‘new’ is that for the first time in the experience of many model makers, confidence is on the run. As they rob Peter to pay Paul, all assets will be impacted in negative ways that do not compute in their models.” (The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, August 2007)

And the bad news just keeps accumulating:

Housing prices dropped 3.2% percent in the second quarter compared with last year, the largest drop since Standard & Poor’s started tracking home prices in 1987.
CIT Group closed its mortgage unit this week, while Lehman Brothers closed its own last week. Mortgage companies that specialize in low-quality mortgages are either going out of business (London-based HSBC) or struggling (California-based Countrywide).

The Wall Street Journal lists the number of fired employees at seven mortgage companies, including First Magnus (6,000), Capitol One’s Greenpoint (1,900), Associated Home Lenders (1,600) and Lehman (1,200), which totals more than 12,000 suddenly unemployed mortgage writers.

To top it off, Bloomberg reports that the subprime mess may lead to lower bonuses for the first time in five years on Wall Street, according to Options Group, a company that’s been tracking this kind of information for a decade.

Somewhere, the world’s smallest violin is playing a sad song for the fund managers and investment bankers who won’t be taking home that million-dollar-plus bonus this year. And Frank Sinatra is singing a sad refrain… “The worst is yet to come.”

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com.

For more information on the housing market and the credit crisis, access the free report, “The Real State of Real Estate,” from Elliott Wave International.

Existing-home sales will fall 8.1% this year while new-home sales will drop 7.1%, Fannie Mae says. The declines are largely due to investors pulling out of the housing market, the mortgage-finance company says.

ADMIN: If you are asking questions about refinancing your mortgage you will get more cash out while home prices are higher than lower.

A reverse mortgage can help ease your finances after you retire, or it could cost you and your heirs a lot of money. Long weighed down by high fees and complexities, these loans are now coming in for a cost-saving makeover.

Consumers may never find that altruistic lender. But there are ways to shop for a loan without getting fooled by salespeople who are more concerned about commissions than clients.

With a reverse mortgage, the lender sends you cash and you make no repayments, so your debt increases while your equity shrinks. When a reverse mortgage becomes due and payable, your home’s value will have been turned into loan advances, loan costs, or left-over equity.

While that notion might seem alarming, remember that’s precisely what a reverse mortgage borrower needs – the ability to “spend down” their home equity, while they live in their home, without having to make monthly loan payments.

Personal finance loans and credit.

FICO scores range from about 300 to 850 and exhibit a left-skewed distribution with a US median around 723. A score above 720 is considered to be “good credit,” and a score below 620 is considered to be sub-prime credit. Higher FICO Scores = Lower Monthly Payments A difference of 3% for the average $150,000 home mortgage could mean more than $100,000 in extra interest to the sub-prime borrower over the life of the loan.

Personal finance resource: credit score, credit cards, reverse mortgages.